Thakur KK1, Revie CW2, Hurnik D2, Poljak Z3, Sanchez J2. Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and
respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal
Disease Spread Model. Prev Vet Med. 2015 Mar 1;118(4):413-26. doi:
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.01.006. Epub 2015 Jan 16.
1Department of Health
Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island,
Charlottetown, PEI, Canada. Electronic address: kthakur@upei.ca.
2Department of Health
Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island,
Charlottetown, PEI, Canada.
3Department of Population
Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Abstract
Porcine
reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major
economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease
Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition
modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and
foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a
model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in
Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of
trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and
extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine
farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and
geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land
of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were
obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of
24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected
animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in
combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the
infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000
replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with
multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the
size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by
direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of
infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both
direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased
to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and
indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when
compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal
movements and the sharing of trucks within the model indicated that the effect
of direct and indirect contact may be nonlinear on outbreak progression. The
increase of 44% in epidemic size when indirect contact, via sharing of trucks,
was incorporated into the model highlights the importance of proper biosecurity
measures in preventing transmission of the PRRS virus. Simulation of between-farm
spread of the PRRS virus in swine farms has highlighted the relative importance
of direct and indirect contact and provides important insights regarding the
possible patterns and extent of spread of the PRRS virus in a completely
susceptible population with herd demographics similar to those found in
Ontario, Canada.
Copyright
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
Between-farm; Infectious
diseases; NAADSM; PRRS Virus; Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome
virus; Spread model; Swine
PMID: 25636969 [PubMed - in process]